This months presentation is very topical with the upcoming general election. Harmonic is proud to sponsor refreshments for the Wellington R Users Group meetings. The R Users Group is co-hosted by Shirley Wu, Chief Operations Officer, Harmonic Analytics and Conrad, Senior Analyst, Social Investment Agency.
- (via Meetup)
6:00 - 6:05pm Meet & Greet
6.05 - 6:50pm Forecasting the New Zealand General Election with R and Stan
Presenter: Peter Ellis
Venue: Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE), 15 Stout Street, Wellington
Peter's website features two statistical models that provide probabilistic forecasts for the coming New Zealand election. One is a Bayesian state space model, and the other is based on a set of generalized additive models. Both are implemented in R in combination with the modelling language Stan, and draw on polling data and previous election results from his 'nzelect' R package. In this talk he'll go through the reasoning and assumptions behind the two models and explore a few implementation issues, ranging from optimising code to bring convergence times to a reasonable length, to the logistics of screen-scraping Wikipedia for the latest poll results. This talk is in Peter's personal capacity, and the analysis is not related to any employers past or present.
Find out more about the R Users Group contact Shirley Wu.